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Location: Washington, United States

Hi everyone, I'm Nick. I'm a 20 year-old college student in Washington state, looking to major in political science and minor in finance. I currently attend community college but am planning on transferring to the University of Washington.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Republicans Have Their Nominee

Pretty impressive win for McCain, who now in all likelihood will be the nominee of the Republican party. Romney really needed a win to sap away some of McCain's momentum going into Super Tuesday, and now he's in real trouble. Adding to his list of problems is Giuliani's resignation from the race and endorsement of McCain (which will come tomorrow), and also his lagging poll numbers. Take a look at the most recent Super Tuesday polls:

California (173 delegates)

SurveyUSA (1/27-1/27)

McCain 37
Romney 25

Politico/CNN/LAT (1/23-1/27)

McCain 39
Romney 26

New York (101 delegates)

USA Today/Gallup (1/23-1/26)

McCain 40
Romney 17
(Giuliani polled at 21%, and even if his supporters go 50/50 for McCain and Romney, Romney will still be way behind)

Georgia (72 delegates)

Rasmussen (1/22-1/22)

Huckabee 34
McCain 19
Romney 14

Illinois (70 delegates)

Research 2000 (1/21-1/24)

McCain 31
Romney 20

Missouri (58 delegates)

Rasmussen (1/24-1/24)

Huckabee 27
McCain 26
Romney 18

Research 2000 (1/21-1/24)

McCain 31
Huckabee 25
Romney 21

Tennessee (55 delegates)

WSMV-TV (1/19-1/21)

Thompson 25
Huckabee 24
McCain 12
Romney 7

(This poll was taken before Thompson dropped out on January 22nd. His voters will most likely trend toward Huckabee and Romney, which helps Huck the most, and just may bump Romney into 2nd)

Arizona (53 delegates)

Behavior Res. Ctr (1/20-1/24)

McCain 40
Romney 23

Arizona State (1/17-1/20)

McCain 41
Romney 18

New Jersey (52 delegates)

Quinnipiac (1/15-1/22)

McCain 29
Giuliani 26
Romney 14

The point is that things are looking bleak for Romney. He is leading in Colorado (46 delegates), Massachusetts (43 delegates), and obviously Utah (36 delegates), but the rest of the Super Tueday states are not swinging in his favor. McCain's got all the momentum in the world, and with a huge endorsement coming from Rudy Giuliani tomorrow, it's looking increasingly like it will be McCain vs. Clinton or Obama in November.

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