The Minefield

What A Mess

Do you think there is any way that the Republican Party could be any more divided right now? The conservatives in the party have basically declared war on John McCain, and are on a vendetta to ensure that he is not the nominee. At the same time, many of them have threatened to sit out in November if he wins the nomination. Does this make any sense at all? What ever happened to winning, what ever happened to attacking the other side more than attacking your own side? Barack Obama was declared the most liberal senator in the U.S. Senate in 2007, according to NationalJournal.com, and instead of exploiting that, the conservatives would rather spend their time attacking McCain.

Now, I'm not saying that I'm a huge fan of the senator from Arizona. With me being a conservative, he was not my first, second, or third choice, but it's looking more and more like he is going to be the Republican nominee, and there is no way that I'm going to spend my time trying to take him down. Even if I have qualms with his record, I know that he is on the right side of many issues, two of which are very important to me. First, he is staunchly pro-life and has the voting record to prove it. Secondly, he won't let Iraq become another Vietnam, and will instead give our boys a chance to defeat the enemy and help the Iraqis establish a stable democracy.

Victor Davis Hanson, came out with a great piece today on Townhall.com, with the title, "Democrats Want to Lose... But Republicans Don't Want To Win." He writes, "If Hillary Clinton does end up winning her party's nomination, November's vote may hinge on whether moderates and liberals are nauseated enough by the Clintons' brawling and character assassination to cross over and vote for a decorated Republican war hero — that is, if his own flag-waving party doesn't destroy him first. "

In the most recent polling by Rasmussen (1/25-1/27), John McCain is ahead by 8 points over Clinton and by 6 points over Obama . On the contrary, Mitt Romney has trailed Clinton in every poll since the beginning of January, and has never led in a poll when matched up against Obama.

Again I say, if Republicans want to win in November, they need to come together and rally around McCain. If they don't, and they destroy him instead, we're looking at retreat and defeat in Iraq, higher taxes, more spending, bigger government, liberal justices being appointed to the Supreme Court, and a litany of other things that are sure to take place with Hillary or Obama as president. For the sake of our futures, let's not let that happen.

The Republicans Have Their Nominee

Pretty impressive win for McCain, who now in all likelihood will be the nominee of the Republican party. Romney really needed a win to sap away some of McCain's momentum going into Super Tuesday, and now he's in real trouble. Adding to his list of problems is Giuliani's resignation from the race and endorsement of McCain (which will come tomorrow), and also his lagging poll numbers. Take a look at the most recent Super Tuesday polls:

California (173 delegates)

SurveyUSA (1/27-1/27)

McCain 37
Romney 25

Politico/CNN/LAT (1/23-1/27)

McCain 39
Romney 26

New York (101 delegates)

USA Today/Gallup (1/23-1/26)

McCain 40
Romney 17
(Giuliani polled at 21%, and even if his supporters go 50/50 for McCain and Romney, Romney will still be way behind)

Georgia (72 delegates)

Rasmussen (1/22-1/22)

Huckabee 34
McCain 19
Romney 14

Illinois (70 delegates)

Research 2000 (1/21-1/24)

McCain 31
Romney 20

Missouri (58 delegates)

Rasmussen (1/24-1/24)

Huckabee 27
McCain 26
Romney 18

Research 2000 (1/21-1/24)

McCain 31
Huckabee 25
Romney 21

Tennessee (55 delegates)

WSMV-TV (1/19-1/21)

Thompson 25
Huckabee 24
McCain 12
Romney 7

(This poll was taken before Thompson dropped out on January 22nd. His voters will most likely trend toward Huckabee and Romney, which helps Huck the most, and just may bump Romney into 2nd)

Arizona (53 delegates)

Behavior Res. Ctr (1/20-1/24)

McCain 40
Romney 23

Arizona State (1/17-1/20)

McCain 41
Romney 18

New Jersey (52 delegates)

Quinnipiac (1/15-1/22)

McCain 29
Giuliani 26
Romney 14

The point is that things are looking bleak for Romney. He is leading in Colorado (46 delegates), Massachusetts (43 delegates), and obviously Utah (36 delegates), but the rest of the Super Tueday states are not swinging in his favor. McCain's got all the momentum in the world, and with a huge endorsement coming from Rudy Giuliani tomorrow, it's looking increasingly like it will be McCain vs. Clinton or Obama in November.

The Best Debate So Far

I think Mitt Romney helped himself out the most after this debate, with Giuliani and McCain following closely behind. Romney's answers on taxes, spending, the war, facing Hillary Clinton, and his faith were all top notch. After watching his performance, I feel much more comfortable in potentially voting for him than I have in the past.

Giuliani was solid again, as usual, but I'm not sure it will be enough to propel him to victory on the 29th. He didn't go on the attack, as many pundits thought he might, but instead remained positive and showcased his background and results. His answer about how he believes that he'll share the same fate as the NY Giants did against the Patriots last week was well received by the audience.

John McCain also had a solid night, but I don't believe he said or did anything that will significantly help or hurt him next Tuesday. Hist most memorable moment came when he praised Giulaini for being an "American hero" after Brian Williams read a scathing NY Times editorial about the former mayor. If Frank Luntz would have been charting the responses of a live focus group, his scores in that moment would have been off the charts. I also found McCain's response about Sylvester Stallone beating up Chuck Norris to be very funny. His weakest moments came when discussing the economy and also when he said that one of the biggest concerns of conservatives is global warming. I don't think that resonated with "the base" at all.
Mike Huckabee also did well, and gave some good answers, but he'll more than likely still come in fourth in Florida. His best chance to secure his spot as the frontrunner was in South Carolina, but obviously, it didn't happen for him. I think the time has come for him to start considering how much longer he can be a viable candidate for the nomination.

Overall, it was by far the best debate that I've seen since the race for the nomination began. The questions were solid, the answers were solid, and I believe that the viewers got the best glimpse so far into the ideals, the values, and the beliefs of each candidate. Floridans really do have a tough decision to make when they go to cast their ballots next Tuesday, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

It's Do-Or-Die Time For Rudy

Five days. That's how much time that Rudy Giuliani has left to make his case for the Republican nomination. Five short days before Floridans go to the polls and decide his fate, and the direction of this election. Five days until he looks like either a genius or a fool. That's it. If he doesn't win, the race is down to two candidates: McCain and Romney. If he does win, he throws the race wide open heading into Super Tuesday.

To be frank, I'm unimpressed with both McCain and Romney, so I hope the first scenario I presented doesn't come to pass. Neither man has been my first choice throughout this whole process, as I thought Giuliani and Thompson would make better presidents. That said, I'm tired of hearing Republicans say that if their man doesn't win the nomination, they'll either sit out the election, or even worse, vote for the Democratic candidate. I think it's a ridiculous notion to say that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would make better leaders for this country than Huck, Mitt, McCain, or Giuliani. That's simply not true. I understand some Republicans being upset if their first, second, or even third choice isn't the nominee, but to simply give the presidency to the Democrats is not the correct response to their frustrations. No matter how bad you think it would be if a certain Republican was elected, I guarantee it would be worse under Hillary or Obama.

Even if we have to clamp our noses with clothespins or Vice Grips when we go to cast our ballots, we should still do so knowing that if we choose to sit out, we concede defeat to the Democrats. I don't know about you, but I'm not one to concede anything to anyone on the left without a fight. The stakes are too high and the challenges are too great to sit out one of the most important presidential elections of our lifetime. Don't make that mistake; choose victory, not defeat.

The Groan Moment Of The Day

Just watch...

Who let the dogs out, wooh wooh? Does he really think he's being hip? I certainly don't believe that Romney's a racist, but that is a very stereotypical thing to say around a group of black kids.

Fred Thompson Drops Out

My second favorite candidate behind Rudy Giuliani has dropped out of the race for president, as many thought he would after a mediocre finish in South Carolina. In a brief statement, Thompson broke the news, saying, "Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people." Senator Thompson is indeed a true conservative, and it's a shame that more people didn't rally behind him in his effort to secure the nomination. I still think he would make a great VP, and another candidate would be wise to persuade him to join their ranks.

Romney/McCain Win, Huck in Trouble, Hunter Drops Out, Thompson Next?

Wow, what a day. First, Romney cleans up in Nevada, with more than 51% of the vote, then McCain essentially knocks out Huckabee out of the race with a win in South Carolina. It still remains to be seen whether or not Fred Thompson will call it quits, as Duncan Hunter did earlier, but today's results show just how important Florida is going to be on January 29th. Both McCain and Romney have momentum heading into the Sunshine State, but it remains to be seen just how much that will help as Giuliani has done nothing but campaign there for the past few weeks.

Right now, the delegate count among the top five candidates stands as follows:

Romney: 72
McCain: 38
Huckabee: 29
Thompson: 8
Giuliani: 2

As I've mentioned before, a win in Florida means a grand total of 57 delegates and a huge amount of momentum heading into Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Big Primary Day

Voting has begun in both Nevada, where Mitt Romney is the front runner, and South Carolina, where John McCain and Mike Huckabee are battling it out.

Polls in Nevada have been quite erratic as Mitt Romney has gone from 15 points in one, to 28 points in another, to 34 point in yet another, all over the span of one week. John McCain seems to be solidly in second, while Huckabee, Giuliani, and Thompson could all potentially snatch 3rd.

The three most recent polls for SC on RealClearPolitics shows McCain and Huckabee tied, McCain up by one, and Huckabee up by seven.

Another battle is for third place between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Most polls show Romney beating the former senator, but not by a very wide margin.

And of course, as has been the case as of late, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are "dueling" for 5th and 6th place. Rudy has put all of his eggs in one very crucial basket in Florida, and it remains to be seen if his incredibly risky strategy of ignoring all of the early primaries will pay off.

Campaign Update

- Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee are at war with each other after Thursday's debate.

- Meanwhile, Thompson has been endorsed by Human Events magazine, one of the most conservative publications in America. On November 13, 2007, Thompson was endorsed by the National Right to Life Committee. That's two major conservative endorsements so far, plus a non-official endorsement from Rush Limbaugh last week. My question is when are conservatives going to give up their Mike Huckabee obsession and realize that Thompson is the candidate that they should be backing?

- John McCain is leading in all Michigan polls but one after his primary win in New Hampshire last week. Romney is right on his heels in most polls while Huckabee sits comfortably in third.

- As Thompson and Huckabee quarrel, McCain and Romney are also taking jabs at one another in Michigan on issues such as the rejuvenation of Michigan's economy. McCain's blasting Romney for being too optimistic, while Romney is blasting McCain for being too pessimistic. The sad thing is that I fear that neither candidate, especially the loser, will much care after January 15th.

- While the media has already written him off for the nomination, Rudy Giuliani is allocating nearly every resource at his disposal to ensure a victory in Florida. Remember, a win in Florida is worth 57 delegates.

- And finally, from the Ron Paul camp comes this story via NPR: "In the 80s and 90s, Paul was involved with newsletters (Ron Paul's Freedom Report, Ron Paul Political Report, The Ron Paul Survival Report) that regularly made racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic remarks. They were first reported by the Houston Chronicle in 1996, and have been circulating around the Internet ever since."

Do us all a favor Ron, drop out already. You're finished.

I Just Have To Say...

...that I have been absolutely horrible at making predictions lately. First the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, now the Seahawks/Green Bay game. What a drubbing the Seahawks just took. Kudos to Brett Favre, though, a class act and a legend.